In the Spring of 2021, there was high support for Brexit, which was seemingly bolstered by the UK’s fast rollout of vaccinations for COVID-19. Compared to other major European countries, the UK had managed to vaccinate a far higher share of its population by Spring 2021, although other countries did catch up in the summer.
Since that high point, the fall in support for Brexit mirrors the government’s sinking approval ratings. The outgoing Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, is heavily associated with Brexit and the Leave vote and all of the scandals that emanated from his behaviour.
An unsettling 62 per cent of the British public now think Brexit is going badly, with just 28 per cent thinking it is going well. Worse, only 26 per cent think the Conservative party is the best party to make Brexit work and another 26 per cent don’t know if any party can make it work. Behind that on 19 per cent, British voters think ‘none’ is the answer – even when given the option of Labour (14 per cent) or LibDem (9 per cent).
In other words – nearly half of the general public now thinks no party can make Brexit work.
Statista’s monthly poll of Brexit reveals something else. A question was put to Leave voters of the 2016 EU referendum in January 2020 and quarterly thereafter. It asked – “In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?” Unsurprisingly, 52 per cent now think it was wrong to leave the EU. This is the highest percentage for that question. The ‘don’t know’s’ have remained constant throughout the survey period sitting between 11 and 14 per cent.
The gap between Remain and Leave is now 8 per cent in favour of Remain if the question – “If there was another referendum on Britain’s membership of the EU, how would you vote?” was posed. The ‘Don’t Know’s on this question sit firmly at 12 per cent.
WhatUKthinks produces a Poll of Polls, which is based on the average share of the vote for ‘Leave’ and ‘Remain’ in the six most recent polls of how people would vote if they were to be presented once again with the choice of either leaving the EU or remaining a member. By January 2020 the gap was Remain 53 per cent and Leave 47 per cent. By June this year, the same result from its ‘poll of polls’ was confirmed.
Prof John Curtice (the elections guru) – is a Senior Research Fellow at NatCen, Professor of Politics at Strathclyde University, and Chief Commentator on the What UK Thinks. He recently commented that – “The future of the Brexit debate in Britain will not simply rest on the reactions of those who cast their verdict five years ago.” This comment was largely based on the number of people who didn’t or couldn’t vote in the 2016 referendum – who would now vote because they feel more motivated to do so or because they are now able to vote (because they are now old enough).
The reality is that poll after poll, studies, research papers and overall commentary now leads to one conclusion – that A) Brexit was a mistake and B) if given another referendum vote opportunity, Remain would win by at the very least 52/48.
The suspicion is that it may well turn out to be a more clear-cut result by getting much closer to 60 per cent for Remain if the same questions are asked in another year or so. However, there is no doubting one thing, in hindsight, many Brexit voters regret their decision, whilst no Remain voters regret theirs.
Perhaps the way to resolve the thorny issue of Brexit is to agree a compromise position from both sides of the debate and then renegotiate with the EU. One thing we do know – the current Brexit arrangement we have with the EU is highly detrimental to British business and is only set to get worse with the upcoming Northern Ireland Bill that will inevitably see relations with our biggest trading partners and allies deteriorate even further.