By Graham Vanbergen: Before the weekend, Sir Graham Brady, chair of the all-powerful 1922 committee already had 48 letters from Tory MPs dissatisfied with Boris Johnson as Prime Minister. But what really tipped the balance and triggered an influx of additional letters to pass the crucial 54 mark was Johnson being booed outside the thanksgiving service for the Queen at St Paul’s Cathedral at the weekend. The Queen is known privately to dislike Boris Johnson and may well have enjoyed that moment watching the BBC’s live commentary from the comfort of Windsor Castle.
A memo circulating the Tory bubble cites polling that “no social group trusts him, with even 55 per cent of current Conservatives calling him untrustworthy”.
One Tory MP echoed what many of the general public feel to be true – “A Conservative prime minister being booed by people who turned up to witness people arriving for a service in honour of the Queen is pretty dire. When you’ve lost the royalists, and a lot of them will be former service personnel, that’s our core vote.” Johnson was also booed when leaving the same event.
Johnson is now facing this vote of confidence being triggered, most likely today. According to the Times newspaper today – the one-page memo lists 13 reasons to drop the prime minister, concluding that the “only way to restore Conservative fortunes to a point where we can win the next general election, is to remove Boris Johnson as prime minister”.
The memo being circulated over the bank holiday garnered support. However, having 15 per cent of MPs stating they no longer want Boris Johnson as their leader is different to the 180 votes that are required in the subsequent ballot of Conservative MPs to oust him.
The reality for Johnson is his constantly building toxicity and the consequence of the overall damage he is doing to the Conservative party more widely.
Brexit has been a failure in the eyes of voters. By last November, only 38 per cent of voters would vote for it, with the vast majority of Brexit supporters believing it has been handled so badly, that they do not have the Brexit they voted for.
Leaving aside Brexit, the law-breaking and very damaging ‘partygate’ scandal – Boris Johnson has racked up a formidable reputation for breaking the rules. From mixing with donors with dodgy cash and backgrounds, proroguing parliament, sacking two dozen old-guard Tories and the Downing Street refurbishment to ‘let the bodies pile high’ and putting dogs before people in the Afghan farce. The list goes on – and for Tory backbenchers is likely to continue in the future.
The media are no longer on Johnson’s side and even his acolytes, those that know they will lose their jobs if he is evicted from No10 are losing faith. There appears to be wide acceptance now that Johnson is becoming more than just a liability. Two by-elections are coming up – one is expected to result in a thumping defeat, the other, a very safe seat with a huge majority is now threatened by the emerging popularity of the LibDems. Then there is the parliamentary standards committee – yet to conclude their investigation. In the eyes of the public, anything short of stating that Johnson misled parliament, will be seen as a whitewash, thereby damaging confidence in the Tory party even further.
Still, Johnson could survive and if he did, will lead the Tories to the next election. The expectation amongst many Tory MP’s is that they will lose – and lose badly. For seeing the demise of Johnson, the Queen may well be amused.