It now looks ever more likely that gas prices will stay high for years, but petrol prices should fall back sooner, according to new analysis. This, of course, might not be the same for diesel prices at the pump.

The Centre for Economics and Business Research has ominously warned that “the cost of heating your house on gas may well stay up for years rather than months.” This is a situation made clear by the loss of Russian supplies and the following infrastructure challenges in replacing them. At the moment – key energy allies, those from the Gulf states, for example, have decided not to play ball in Western markets.

However, the CEBR did say that there was “some hope for early relief at the petrol stations.” It takes the view that by facing those infrastructure challenges means the price of oil should fall by the end of the year.

We have all been witness to the connection of rising energy prices since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine amid uncertainty about supplies.  This has caused an escalation in prices at the pump and home heating costs. Russia is by far the biggest exporter of oil and oil products to global markets. It also supplies about 40 per cent of Europe’s gas. As a direct result of Russia’s attack on Ukraine – western buyers have ended up boycotting Russian oil. The United States has imposed an oil embargo and released huge reserves to calm markets.

Rising Covid cases in China is causing energy demand to fall and increased production elsewhere should see strategic stockpiles being released and high prices denting demand.

The CEBR also said its models were predicting Brent back below $90 a barrel in 2024 and that “much of that fall is forecast by December 2022”. FairFuelUK said this should translate to a reduction of 8p a litre in prices at the pump. Brent was at about $104 a barrel last night.

However, it still remains the fact that home heating via gas, will heavily erode disposable income for the foreseeable future. “Until terminals are built and operating and demand is reduced, Europe has to choose between facing a recession and continuing to buy Russian gas,” the CEBR said.