UK economic growth finally reaches pre-pandemic activity

Finally – some good news. Economic Growth in the UK reportedly grew faster than previously estimated in the final quarter of last year, all but reaching its pre-pandemic level.

According to the Office for National Statistics, UK gross domestic output grew 1.3 per cent between the third and fourth quarters of last year. This performance was stronger than the earlier estimate of 1 per cent.

Compared with the fourth quarter of 2019, before the pandemic, output was down only 0.1 per cent, revised from the previous estimate of a 0.4 per cent fall, meaning that the economy had largely recovered from the hit of the pandemic

However, the UK recovery is lagging behind those of the US and the eurozone, which passed pre-pandemic levels in the final quarter of 2020. Spain and Italy faired worse and surprisingly the German economy was still 1.1 per cent below the pre-pandemic period.

The ‘household saving ratio’, the average percentage of disposable income that is saved, decreased to 6.8 per cent, down from 7.5 per cent in the previous quarter. This was not just the lowest since the start of the pandemic but lower than at any time since 1998 at 7.5 per cent 2010-19 and 7.25 per cent the previous decade.

Household savings are now more than likely to decrease as the cost of living crisis continues, which in turn may well hurt economic growth. In addition, as reported yesterday – credit card debt has just reached an all-time high in February at £1.5bn. To put that into perspective – that figure is more than 300 per cent higher than the average of £400mn borrowed in the previous six months.